As we observe the current GTA real estate market, it’s evident that fewer people are actively participating compared to previous years. Many individuals appear to be losing hope, which is unsurprising given the significant market changes we’ve witnessed.
Historically, real estate investments have relied heavily on the experiences of the past two decades, during which the market was robust. However, these strategies may no longer be effective in the current environment. The market has undeniably transformed, and we must adapt our approaches accordingly.
In recent years, particularly since interest rates began rising in 2022, finding low-risk investments with an annual return of over 5% has become increasingly challenging. Products like Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs) may come to mind, but after accounting for taxes, the net return is significantly reduced. Similarly, while stocks, bonds, and gold have potential, they are not guaranteed safe bets. The unpredictability of these markets, exacerbated by global instability and economic uncertainty, further complicates investment decisions.
Given the current conditions, repaying your mortgage might be one of the most stable returns you can achieve. For example, if your mortgage interest rate is around 5.9% to 6%, repaying it is equivalent to earning a tax-free return of the same percentage, especially if it’s for a primary residence, which doesn’t incur capital gains tax.
The long-standing debate between prioritizing cash flow versus property appreciation is now more relevant than ever. While appreciation was the dominant strategy during low-interest periods, the current high-interest environment makes positive cash flow crucial. Properties that were previously manageable with slight cash flow losses are now significant burdens, with potential monthly deficits reaching thousands of dollars.
Investing in real estate requires patience and the ability to weather market fluctuations. Historically, both the stock and real estate markets have shown long-term upward trends despite various economic crises. The key to successful investing is the ability to hold on through downturns, rather than attempting to time the market perfectly.
A major concern in the Toronto market is the disparity between the cost of building new properties (the “flour”) and the market price of completed homes (the “bread”). With the cost of construction often exceeding the market price of existing homes, developers are less inclined to start new projects. This has resulted in a significant reduction in new condo launches, with a sales decrease of 85% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2022. The backlog of unsold condos now stands at over 23,000 units, taking approximately 30.6 months to clear at the current sales pace.
Given the current market dynamics, it’s unlikely that new housing construction will pick up soon. Developers are hesitant to build when costs exceed potential sale prices, leading to a prolonged period of low housing starts. This situation will exacerbate the existing supply-demand imbalance, especially as population growth continues to outpace housing availability.
In this uncertain environment, it might be wise to adopt a long-term perspective and consider the potential benefits of maintaining liquidity and focusing on low-risk investments, such as paying down mortgages. As the market adjusts, opportunities will arise for those who are patient and strategic. While the exact timing of market recovery is uncertain, prudent investors who understand the evolving dynamics will be better positioned to capitalize on future growth.
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