Great Toronto Housing Market in 2025: Crisis Over or Just a Shift?

Over the past few years, Canada’s housing market has been a major topic of discussion. In 2023, concerns about a housing crisis dominated conversations, with soaring rents, low vacancy rates, and rising home prices making headlines. However, as we move into 2025, the discussion around a housing crisis has largely faded. Does this mean the crisis is truly over? Or has the market simply adjusted in a way that shifts the challenges rather than eliminating them?

Has Canada’s Housing Crisis Disappeared?

Back in 2023, social media was flooded with tenant complaints about rent hikes, eviction disputes, and landlords struggling with non-paying renters. Vacancy rates were historically low, and rental supply was unable to keep up with demand. Many feared that the country’s housing crisis would spiral out of control.

However, in 2024 and early 2025, those conversations have faded. The main reason? Falling condo rents and declining home prices in key markets like Toronto.

How Falling Rents and Prices Changed the Market

Between 2023 and 2024, rents in Toronto’s downtown condo market actually declined by about 10% from their peak. The median condo sale price also dropped by more than 10%. This shift has made condos more affordable and improved the return on investment (ROI) for buyers.

• Falling rents amid softened tenant demand due to tighter immigration control—Some renters who might have stretched their budgets in 2023 are now able to move into better units or negotiate better lease terms.
• Lower home prices make ownership more accessible—With condos now more affordable, more renters may consider buying instead of continuing to lease.
• Investors are seeing better rental yields—Lower purchase prices combined with still-strong rental demand are improving rental income ratios, making real estate investment more attractive again.

However, despite falling condo prices, vacancy rates have remained largely unchanged, meaning downtown Toronto remains a landlord’s market. Renters still face challenges finding available units, and those hoping for a renter’s market shift may be disappointed.

Additionally, new tariffs on construction materials have added uncertainty for buyers, with some expecting future condo prices to decline further. This hesitation from buyers could prolong market stagnation, even as fundamentals suggest rental housing demand remains strong.

Is Canada’s Housing Policy Working?

The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Trudeau, has focused heavily on increasing housing supply to tackle affordability. But has it worked?

A Record Year for Housing Starts—But With a Catch

According to the 2024 Fall Housing Supply Report, Canada recorded one of its strongest years for new housing starts in 34 years, with construction increasing by 4%. However, a closer look at the data reveals some key trends:

1. Western Canada is driving new construction—Cities like Calgary and Edmonton saw the highest increases in housing starts, while Toronto, Vancouver, and Ottawa experienced a decline.
2. Half of all new units are rental-only—In 2024, 50% of new housing starts were purpose-built rental apartments, marking a historic high. These buildings are intended solely for renting, not for sale, shifting the balance between rental and ownership opportunities.
3. Developers are prioritizing pre-sold projects—With slow condo sales, many developers are focusing on completing already sold projects rather than launching new ones.

Ontario’s Housing Mismatch

Despite being Canada’s most populated province, Ontario’s new housing supply is not keeping pace with demand. In cities like Toronto, developers face high government fees, slow approval processes, and rising construction costs, discouraging new projects.

• Government development charges have surged, adding an average of $32,000 per unit in fees between 2022 and 2024.
• In cities like Mississauga and Toronto, developers pay over $200,000 in fees per unit, driving up final sale prices.
• New home completions remain stagnant, while immigration-driven population growth continues to outpace supply.

As a result, Ontario is experiencing a severe housing supply mismatch—too few homes in the areas where demand is highest.

Is Real Estate Still a Good Investment?

With condo prices and rents both experiencing declines in Toronto, many are wondering: Is real estate still a good investment?

Investor Activity Remains Strong

Contrary to media speculation, real estate investors have not left the market. In fact, investor mortgage activity is higher now than five years ago.

• In 2019, investment property mortgages accounted for 14% of all new mortgages.
• In 2024, that number had increased to 17%, even amid high interest rates.

This suggests that investors still see long-term value in real estate, despite short-term fluctuations.

Will Interest Rate Cuts Spark a Recovery?

The Bank of Canada has already begun cutting interest rates, with further cuts expected in 2025. Lower borrowing costs could trigger a surge in demand, particularly from first-time buyers and investors who have been waiting for the right moment to re-enter the market.

However, some obstacles remain:

• Stress test rates are still high, making it difficult for many buyers to qualify for mortgages.
• Government policies continue to favor rental development, reducing the supply of condos available for purchase.
• Market sentiment remains cautious, with many waiting for clearer signs of price stabilization.
• New tariffs add further uncertainty, as potential buyers worry that economic pressures and market instability could push condo prices even lower in the near future.

While lower interest rates could help affordability, these factors are keeping many buyers on the sidelines, waiting for more stability before making a move.

What’s Next for Canada’s Housing Market?

Looking ahead, several key trends will shape Canada’s housing market:

1. Housing affordability is improving, but only in certain segments—Downtown Toronto condos are now more affordable, but detached home prices remain high.
2. Rent prices will continue to shape demand—If rents stabilize or decline further, demand for homeownership may grow.
3. Interest rate cuts could fuel a market rebound—Lower rates will improve affordability and investor confidence.
4. Government housing policies will keep influencing supply—With a focus on rental housing, ownership opportunities may remain limited.
5. New tariffs could delay condo recovery—Buyers fearing further price drops may remain hesitant, prolonging market uncertainty.

For buyers and investors, 2025 presents both risks and opportunities. Condo prices and rents have adjusted downward, making entry into the market more attractive. However, the overall direction of the market will depend on economic conditions, government policy, interest rate movements, and the impact of new tariffs.

If you’re considering buying, selling, or investing in Toronto real estate, now may be the right time to reassess market conditions and take advantage of the shifting landscape.